Regatta dance prospects: A washout possible

Event date Saturday 30 January 2010
High tide 07:47 (1.30 m) then 20:03 (1.21 m)

One Hundred and Thirty-Eight Hours Out: Part of MetVUW forecast chart for regatta evening, issued midnight last night. chart MetVUW

Many love to malign meteorologists.

The suicide of the father of British meteorology, whose name is immortalised for New Zealanders geographically with Port Fitzroy, was possibly assisted by the public’s propensity to blame the messenger.

MetVUW produces seven-day forecast charts. MetVUW’s James McGregor says:

We wouldn’t advise anyone to take the seven-day forecasts literally, but hope that these longer forecasts will provide some useful indication of how things might develop.

If the organisers persist with the traditional Mahurangi Regatta after-match function, and the rainfall on Saturday evening is heavier than currently forecast, the dance would be a washout. While a dance under canvas could still be a hoot on a wet night, the attendance would likely be so reduced that it could cost Friends of the Mahurangi thousands, and jeopardise the future of the event.

The decision will be made at the latest possible moment. That, practicably, is Wednesday morning—by having prepared alternate stories to hand, the Rodney Times can proceed to print the good or bad news in its Thursday edition.

Between now and then, the MetVUW forecast charts, which are updated every six hours, will be pawed over. So far the prospect for rain has firmed from yesterday’s chart to this morning’s, but with luck that trend could see the threat come and go soon enough for a night dancing in the light of a full, rain-washed moon. Meantime, if some well-heeled souls are of a mind to underwrite the night to the tune of say $3000, the organisers might adopt a strategy of…

…dance and be damned.